Table 1

ARIMA model parameters for Figure 1A

EstimateStandard errort valuep value
ARIMA model parameters 1OutcomesNo transformationConstant3726.399145.99325.525<0.001
ARLag 10.6090.4461.3640.206
Time periodNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.58538.5506.734<0.001
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 03144.925305.50510.294<0.001
InteractNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−530.22150.743−10.449<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 2
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.494145.36925.628<0.001
ARLag 10.6050.4471.3520.209
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−37.185133.227−0.2790.786
6 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.90138.4736.755<0.001
6 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.59329.031−9.321<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 3
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.852145.95125.528<0.001
ARLag 10.6090.4461.3640.206
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−567.264151.953−3.7330.005
12 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.80238.5426.741<0.001
12 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.72929.187−9.276<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 4
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.668145.56025.595<0.001
ARLag 10.6060.4471.3560.208
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−1097.990183.443−5.985<0.001
18 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.84438.4966.750<0.001
18 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.60729.076−9.307<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 5
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3724.868145.79925.548<0.001
ARLag 10.6080.4471.3620.206
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−1629.819222.141−7.337<0.001
24 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0260.09838.5266.751<0.001
24 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.75329.171−9.282<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 6
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3724.800145.74425.557<0.001
ARLag 10.6080.4471.3620.206
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−2160.452264.907−8.156<0.001
30 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0260.09338.5206.752<0.001
30 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.77629.142−9.291<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 7
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.820145.69925.572<0.001
ARLag 10.6070.4471.3590.207
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−2688.893309.975−8.675<0.001
36 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.78238.5146.745<0.001
36 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.63529.101−9.300<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 8
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.288145.46525.609<0.001
ARLag 10.6060.4471.3540.209
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−3220.464356.342−9.038<0.001
42 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.94438.4866.754<0.001
42 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.62629.045−9.317<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 9
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.283145.60425.585<0.001
ARLag 10.6070.4471.3570.208
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−3751.680404.167−9.282<0.001
48 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.96938.5016.752<0.001
48 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.67329.106−9.300<0.001
ARIMA model parameters 10
OutcomesNo transformationConstant3725.515146.02625.513<0.001
ARLag 10.6100.4461.3680.205
PhaseNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−4282.119453.283−9.447<0.001
54 months preinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0259.86938.5516.741<0.001
54 months postinterventionNo transformationNumeratorLag 0−270.90529.197−9.279<0.001