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Commentary, History, Teaching, and Public Awareness

Stop Fooling Yourself! (Diagnosing and Treating Confirmation Bias)

Richard T. Born
eNeuro 22 October 2024, 11 (10) ENEURO.0415-24.2024; https://doi.org/10.1523/ENEURO.0415-24.2024
Richard T. Born
Department of Neurobiology, Blavatnik Institute, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts 02115
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Article Figures & Data

Figures

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  • Figure 1.
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    Figure 1.

    Which line is longer?

  • Figure 2.
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    Figure 2.

    The Ebbinghaus illusion. Which pink circle is bigger?

  • Figure 3.
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    Figure 3.

    Precision (reliability) and accuracy (validity).

  • Figure 4.
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    Figure 4.

    Stages of the scientific process at which confirmation bias can influence the outcome.

  • Figure 5.
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    Figure 5.

    Data from Table 2 (p. 67) of Rosenthal and Lawson 1964. Source code for figure: https://github.com/rickborn/eNeuroCB2024/blob/main/eNeuro_figure_code/Python/figure5_Born_eNeuro.ipynb

  • Figure 6.
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    Figure 6.

    A, Binomial distribution, illustrating a problem of balancing group sizes with simple randomization. B, Method for block randomization. Panel B adapted from Figure 2 of Kang et al., 2008. Source code for panel A: https://github.com/rickborn/eNeuroCB2024/blob/main/eNeuro_figure_code/Python/figure6A_Born_eNeuro.ipynb

  • Figure 7.
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    Figure 7.

    Binomial statistics. A, One example of a simulation of tossing a fair coin 100 times. B, Results from 2,000 such simulations. For each simulation, I recorded the number of “switches” (H followed by T or T followed by H) as well as the length of the longest run of consecutive tosses of the same value (H or T). C, The probability of runs of different lengths is described by the geometric distribution. Source code for figure: https://github.com/rickborn/eNeuroCB2024/blob/main/eNeuro_figure_code/Python/figure7_Born_eNeuro.ipynb

  • Figure 8.
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    Figure 8.

    Flow chart to guide the choice of a method for randomization of subjects. Adapted from Figure 6 of Kang et al., 2008

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    Figure 9.

    Rigor icons for (A) randomization and (B) blinding. PNG files freely available from: https://www.ninds.nih.gov/current-research/trans-agency-activities/rigor-transparency/rigor-champions-and-opportunities/maximizing-data-transparency-rigor-icons

Tables

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    Table 1.

    A sample allocation table for 20 mice based on the method shown in Figure 6B

    Allocation sequence #Animal ID#Group ID#Group identityTreatment administered
    1BL12SC7GM91RxDrug X
    2BL12SC3GM81RxDrug X
    3BL12SC8GM42CtrlNormal saline
    4BL12SC5GM82CtrlNormal saline
    5BL12SC7GM52CtrlNormal saline
    . . .
    20BL12SC7GM61RxDrug X
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    Table 2.

    Steps in the example process of randomization and blinding

    What to doWho does itComments
    1Generate a random allocation sequenceColleagueFigure 6B
    2Shuffle all animal ID#sColleague
    3Assign shuffled ID#s to allocation tableColleagueTable 1
    4Generate group ID#sColleagueFor analysis, e.g., Rx = 1, Ctrl = 2
    5Prepare syringes of substances to be administeredExperimenterDon't label individual syringes! Group in separate beakers (X/Ctrl)
    6Label each syringe with an animal ID#ColleagueRefer to allocation table
    7Collect data, referenced to animal ID#Experimenter
    8Provide analyst with group ID#sColleagueStatistical comparison of groups
    9Reveal group identity after analysis is completeColleague
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    Table 3.

    Frequency of blinding and randomization in various studies of animal disease models

    Disease modeledNumber of papersBlind outcome assessment, # % [95% CI]Randomized group allocation, # % [95% CI]
    Alzheimer's disease4289522 [18, 26]6716 [12, 19]
    Multiple sclerosis1,11717816 [14, 18]1069 [8, 11]
    Parkinson's disease2523815 [11, 20]4016 [12, 21]
    Intracerebral bleed884349 [38, 60]2731 [21, 41]
    Focal ischemia2608733 [28, 40]10038 [32, 45]
    Totals2,14544121 [19, 22]34016 [14, 17]
    • Data from Table 1 of Sena et al., 2014.

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eneuro: 11 (10)
eNeuro
Vol. 11, Issue 10
October 2024
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Stop Fooling Yourself! (Diagnosing and Treating Confirmation Bias)
Richard T. Born
eNeuro 22 October 2024, 11 (10) ENEURO.0415-24.2024; DOI: 10.1523/ENEURO.0415-24.2024

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Stop Fooling Yourself! (Diagnosing and Treating Confirmation Bias)
Richard T. Born
eNeuro 22 October 2024, 11 (10) ENEURO.0415-24.2024; DOI: 10.1523/ENEURO.0415-24.2024
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • Significance Statement
    • Our Biased Brains
    • Confirmation Bias
    • Confirmation Bias Distorts Observations
    • Mitigating Confirmation Bias through Randomization and Blinding
    • Randomization
    • Blinding
    • Does Blinding Make a Difference?
    • How Good Is Your Mask?
    • Are Anti-CB Design Features Widely Used?
    • Tools for Removing Subjectivity
    • Objective Assessment of Behavior
    • Say What You Did!
    • Summary and Conclusions
    • Data Availability
    • Footnotes
    • References
    • Synthesis
  • Figures & Data
  • Info & Metrics
  • eLetters
  • PDF

Keywords

  • blinding
  • cognitive bias
  • confirmation bias
  • experimental design
  • masking
  • randomization

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